Trump tariffs forcing rethink of PC purchases stateside

President Trump's tariffs on goods imported from China, in addition to faltering consumer purchases, are forecast to result in slower-than-expected global shipments of personal computers, according to IDC.

The man in the Oval Office has slapped an additional 10 percent tax on the Middle Kingdom, and as the vast majority of PCs are produced in China, this is likely to curtail volumes coming out of HP, Lenovo, Dell et al.

Acer, for example, has already upped the price of its PCs in the US by 10 percent to compensate, and although the other big brands are so far less transparent on their intentions, it is inevitable that they will follow suit.

Jitesh Urbani, research manager at IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said: "Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs.

"However, the weakness among consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings, though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies."

The US PC market accounted for around one in four units sold in 2024, so it has a massive influence on the global numbers. With this in mind, IDC anticipates 273 million PCs being shifted into the channel worldwide this calendar year, up 2.1 percent on last, yet lower than the previous estimate.

The tablet market is going to shrink by 0.8 percent – if the researcher is correct – to 143.3 million.

In 2025, consumers likely have other pressing issues dominating their household budget and are making do with their current device. Total PC and tablet retail shipments are on track to shrink 0.2 percent to 236.7 million units, according to IDC's current forecast.

In the enterprise, Windows 10 goes out of support in October and businesses are refreshing their fleet of computers. Some large deals are being seen as customers migrate to Windows 11. HP and Dell said last year that businesses were not bringing on upgrade cycles as quickly as they'd anticipated.

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In a word of warning, IDC suspects some businesses might choose not to update their computers this year as "budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support."

It also points out that "AI PC purchases have faced hurdles since their launch." This is down to a lack of a killer application and the vastly higher-than-average sales prices, almost 60 percent higher in Europe.

Despite the caveats, commercial PCs – excluding education – are forecast to jump 4.3 percent globally to 138 million boxes.

The education sector is expected to see a busy back-to-school period, following several years of relatively subdued spending, rising 6.7 percent to 41.7 million. Chromebooks featured heavily in this space before, and the US has accounted for upward of 70 percent of global sales.

Bryan Ma, vice president of Devices Research, said he expects growth rates to "naturally come down next year, but at least there is still a large education project to absorb some of the landing."

The PC market expanded to 350 million shipments in 2021 as people rushed to buy devices to work, play, and socialize. Since then, the industry has shrunk. Many vendors are pinning their hopes on AI PCs to get things moving.

Good luck with that. ®